Entry for October 21, 2006

The chart is from the  December 29, 2004 paper, “The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrpancy” by Steven Freeman (email, website).  The preliminary version, released November 10, is here.  Links to all of Freeman’s research on the 2004 presidential election is here,

In the 2004 presidential election, exit polls showed that Kerry would win the presidency after carrying  Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa.  That very day, Dick Morris started spinning in his  The Hill article, “Those faulty exit polls were sabotage.”  Even Morris acknowledged the predictive power of polling, writing,

So reliable are the surveys that actually tap voters as they leave the polling places that they are used as guides to the relative honesty of elections in Third World countries. ..

This was no mere mistake. Exit polls cannot be as wrong across the board as they were on election night. I suspect foul play.

Steven Freeman, however, found that the likelihood of the exit polls being off in all three states–Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida–as  “250 million to one” and called the
unexplained discrepancy a “legitimate issue that merits public attention.”

Now Florida election officials would solve the problem by banning election polls within a hundred feet of the polling place.  Read, “Judge doubts legality of exit poll law” by the AP’s Curt Anderson.







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